Victory over China

Is it time to bring out the champagne?

The Philippines scored a victory at the international Arbitral Tribunal after the panel unanimously decided that it has jurisdiction over the maritime dispute between China and the Philippines involving parts of the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea.)

The decision means that the tribunal, convened under the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), will hold further hearings to settle the increasingly contentious dispute.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration “on behalf of the Arbitral Tribunal in the Philippines v. China arbitration” clarified that the dispute was not about sovereignty, as China has claimed.

“This arbitration concerns the role of ‘historic rights’ and the source of maritime entitlements in the South China Sea, the status of certain maritime features in the South China Sea and the maritime entitlements they are capable of generating, and the lawfulness of certain actions by China in the South China Sea that are alleged by the Philippines to violate the Convention.”

The panel concluded that it had jurisdiction over the case. It expects to render its decision on the merits and remaining jurisdictional issues in 2016.

With this decision of the Arbitral Tribunal, the Philippines has won round one of its campaign to invalidate China's claims over disputed territory in the South China Sea. Meantime, the government should gradually beef up the country's military capabilities and at the same time harness greater international support for our position that the dispute should be settled according to international law. 

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New king new rules?

It’s assumed that with a change in administration, economic policies are also likely to change depending on the priorities of the new president and his/her team.

The economic gains of the Philippines should not slip back quickly after President Aquino steps down next year when his term ends, if we're to go by the prediction of economists.

Economists at a foreign bank are saying that wheels that most of the structural changes in the Philippines needed for economic advancement were already in place before President Aquino assumed power in 2010, and they see little risk of a reversal in the country’s growth momentum even after he steps down in June 2016.

Our GDP has steadily risen for a decade and government debt steadily fell since 2004 even as the business-process outsourcing (BPO) sector, which has proven a rich source of foreign exchange, similarly rose in big increments due to incentives introduced in the early 2000s.

While growth has historically been volatile for various reasons, the average growth rates under various presidents since 1986 hovered around 3 percent to 4 percent until around 2005. Thus, except for Estrada whose term ended abruptly after less than three years, each president had served long enough to witness a full economic cycle with periods of expansion and contraction.

The economy is seen to continue to expand even after the term of the Aquino administration ends next year and despite the lower growth trajectory seen due to lower global output growth this year.

This is good news for investors worried that with a change in administration next year, economic growth will inevitably head south. 

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Is Duterte stepping up?

The withdrawal of Martin Diño as presidential candidate of PDP-Laban was not unexpected. In the first place, having been the president of an anti-crime watchdog, the Volunteer against Crime and Corruption, apart from being a barangay captain many years ago, did not exactly make him highly qualified to aspire for the top elective position in the country.

But the PDP-Laban is still considered a major political party even if its ranks have thinned out considerably over the years, and for it to make Diño its standard bearer last October 16, the last day for the filing of certificates of candidacy, was more of a calculated move to buy time and allow Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte to reconsider his earlier decision not to run for president.

Now, with Diño officially withdrawing from the presidential race and the PDP-Laban having issued a resolution "compelling" Duterte to run in his stead, it now appears that the 2016 polls would feature a five-way presidential contest.

The latest surveys show Senator Grace Poe, former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party, Vice President Jejomar Binay of the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA), and Duterte in a tight race with double-digit ratings, with Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago the only candidate with a single-digit rating.

Duterte's entry into the presidential race would make the 2016 elections very interesting. He's the only one to bank solely on his experience at the local level to aspire for the presidency on a strong anti-crime and anti-corruption platform.

Will Duterte's survey ratings surge upwards if he finally decides to run? Let's wait and see. 

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Weed them out

The Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB) should implement a one-strike policy against drivers of public utility vehicles (PUV) who upon testing positive for the use of prohibited drugs should be immediately barred from driving.

This week the LTFRB conducted random drug testing among bus drivers in line with the coming All Saint’s Day on Sunday, and it is alarming that at least nine bus drivers tested positive for use of narcotics.

Imagine these drug-addled drivers behind the wheels of buses, jeepneys and taxis and you fear for the lives of their passengers, as well as those of other motorists and pedestrians on the road.

Thus, the government must be strict in weeding out drug addicts from the ranks of all PUV drivers, including those who cite as an excuse to stay awake their use of such stimulants like shabu.

At the very least, the LTFRB and the Land Transportation Office, should suspend for six months the licenses of PUV drivers who tested positive for drugs.

The LTFRB should also strictly regulate the operation of bus and even taxi companies to make sure that their drivers are not allowed to drive tired and lacking sleep.

There should be a maximum driving time for all PUV drivers to ensure that they are always at peak physical conditioning while removing the necessity for them to use products, whether legal like energy drinks or illegal like drugs, just to stay awake.

 Image by : www.inquirer.net

Falling behind

The World Bank-International Finance Corp. has come out with its annual Doing Business (DB) Report and it's unflattering for the Philippines, which slumped to one of the lowest in Southeast Asia.

           

Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima has expressed dismay over the country’s five-notch slip to 103rd from 97th in the survey, calling it an “inappropriate” reflection of the country’s business climate.

           

“The Philippines firmly believes that the Doing Business survey methodology of collecting sample data from one or only two cities makes it inappropriate to present the report as reflective of the state of doing business for an entire economy,” Purisima said. “Countries, especially developing ones like the Philippines, will have bright spots of promise in some areas and not in others,” he added.

           

One example of such a bright spot is the country’s special economic zones, where the locators, managed by the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA), are granted numerous fiscal incentives in their operations.

           

The World Bank has clarified that the survey has limitations, as it focuses only on each economy’s “largest business city.” Survey questionnaires were sent to businesses in covered areas. In the Philippines, the survey was conducted in Quezon City.

           

The multilateral agency has given assurances that it is working with the government to improve the survey’s coverage and identify priority areas for reform.

           

In contrast to the World Bank report, the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index showed the Philippines posting sustained improvements in another business climate gauge. It consistently rose from 75th in 2011, 65th in 2012, 59th in 2013, 52nd last year and 47th this year.

           

While the two surveys gave different results, one thing is clear: the Philippine economy needs to sustain ongoing reforms, whether in terms of doing business and increasing its competitiveness, so that we compare favorably with our neighbors in Asean in the years ahead.  

 Image by: www.corbettreport.com