China  muscles into claimed PH territory   

Don’t look now, but we could wake up one day to find the Kalayaan group of islands in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea that we claim as part of our territory already fully occupied by China.   

What’s going on in the disputed islands appears to be massive and extensive construction and reclamation activities by China.

Intelligence photographs show military facilities, including airstrips, multi-story command structures, and docks for warships, being constructed by China on various reefs and shoals, There are also ongoing construction activities by China in Chigua Reef, Calderon Reef, Kagitingan Reef, Mabini Reef, Gaven Reef, Zamora Reef, and Panganiban Reef.

At the rate China is going, according to one observer, the Philippines will lose the Kalayaan Group of Islands in one or two years.

Another analyst believes the country will lose anything from 50 percent to as much as the entire Kalayaan island group in the next ten years, an estimate considered very conservative and highly optimistic.

This view says  that even if China does not force the Philippine military out of the West Philippine Sea, we will lose control of our 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone, rendering the 9 Philippine military outposts useless and impossible to support.

Faced with increasing Chinese aggressiveness, the Philippines has submitted its claim to disputed islands to the United Nations arbitration process, an act which China considers unfriendly as it insists on bilateral talks instead.

China buttresses its territorial claims on the so-called “nine-dash line”, which has since morphed into a “ten-dash line” covering almost the whole of the South China Sea. But this “ten-dash line” appears to be a mere figment of China’s imagination, with no sound historical basis, as pointed out by Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio not too long ago.

The UN arbitral tribunal is set to hold oral hearings on the Philippine case against China on July 8. The resolution is estimated to be ready six months later.

Even if the arbitration proceedings in the United Nations end up in our favor, China is not bound by it as it does not recognize the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). At least, we hold the moral high ground in the eyes of the interantional community even if we lose physical territory in the South China Sea.  But that’s cold comfort.

We should therefore strengthen alliances with our neighbors in ASEAN and the rest of Asia try to get their backing for our territorial claim. We have already gained the support of Vietnam, and this is a significant development as it is also a claimant in the South China Sea.  Our only hope is that  international censure could force China to backtrack on its expansionist designs in this part of the world.

At the same time, we should  gradually improve our defense capabilities to deter further Chinese incursions in disputed territory. At the very least, we should be able to conduct surveillance in the vast expanse of the South China Sea to determine whether our claimed islands are still ours or already lost to Chinese expansionism.

Modernizing our military means purchasing more aircraft and naval vessels that can monitor Chinese moves and serve notice that we are determined to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

China’s aggressiveness in the South China Sea contradicts its earlier pronouncement of “peaceful rising”. With the Chinese economy already surpassing that of Japan and its military growing by leaps and bounds and seen to challenge the American military presence in this part of the world, the Philippines is certainly no match  to our  economically and militarily superior neighbor. But if we play our cards right in the political and diplomatic spheres and build a credible defense posture, then perhaps China will think twice about claiming disputed territory in the entire South China Sea as its own. -end-